ROI calculation on “Free” Mike and Ike contest

Mike & Ike Candy
click stock up, spin the wheel until you win
500 given each month
http://www.mikeandike.com/main.html

Ok, I went over there and the spinny wheel is kinda cute.  It is like a vegas slot machine.  But I pressed “spin” 100 times and never won.  Lets do the math.  500 winners per month.  That would be on average 6 winners per day (assuming a 30 day month), with 24 hrs is about one winner per 4 hours.  You can click the button about once a second if you are diligent.  That means that there are 60 sec x 60 min x 4 hours =14,400 clicks in the four hour period and they award one of them the prize. 

Now this is simple math assuming there is only one person clicking solid for 4 hours. And that the machine awards one every four hours.  It also doesn’t account for other people clicking.  They may not, they may award one every XX clicks. It is impossible to know their algorythm. All these factors just make the odds go up against the player.   If the site is playing by the conservative rules, you should be able to sit there and click for four hours and be gauranteed to win a box of candy. 

Now what is your time worth?  Lets say $20/hr.  That means about $.33/minute.  $1 of your time is about 3 minutes. 

Summary:

Prize: $1 box of candy

Cost: Up to 4 hours of time and 14,400 clicks of the mouse.

BreakEven Calculation:  Click for 3 minutes, if you haven’t won, move on, you are loosing money.