time to short AVR

From their earnings yesterday and the Lehman analyst:
* The results were slightly ahead of our forecasts, however the big news in the release were liquidity issues. The company has $223 million liquidity available in the form of cash in hand and availability under credit facility. This compared to remaining capex for the two plants under construction of $295-$305 million. The company’s 2007 EBITDA was $58 million and given the trends in the commodity market, webelieve 2008 number will be substantially lower. The company has additional $127 million in auction rate securities, however, the market for these securities has dried up and the company may not be able to liquidate them on a timely basis. AVR indicates that in this case it will have to attempt to raise additional funds or slow down the construction of new facilities. Delay in construction could mean “material penalties” for the company.

read: “We are F***ed by the credit market”

look for them to get bought before year end.